What the HDB resale numbers actually show right now
18 June 2026
The headline number from HDB’s Q1 2026 resale price index was flat, plus 0.3 percent quarter on quarter. Most coverage stopped there. I want to look at the volume data instead, because that is where the signal is.
What volume is saying
Resale transaction volume for Q1 came in at roughly 6,800 units, down about 12 percent from Q4 2025. That is not alarming on its own. Q4 tends to be elevated because buyers want to complete before the calendar year turns. But the February and March numbers specifically were soft in a way that does not fit the seasonal pattern.
The OCR (Outside Central Region) saw the sharpest volume drop, concentrated in the four and five room flat category in mature estates. Bidadari, Tampines, and parts of Woodlands accounted for a disproportionate share of the slowdown.
My read: buyers in that segment are recalibrating around affordability. The Enhanced CPF Housing Grant changes that came into effect in January 2026 helped first-timers at the lower end, but the typical OCR resale buyer (upgrading from a smaller flat, usually not eligible for the full grant) is doing the math on total debt cost more carefully now.
Price versus affordability
A four-room flat in a mature OCR estate is now transacting at an average of around SGD 720k to 760k. At current mortgage rates, a couple taking the maximum 75 percent loan on a 760k flat is looking at a monthly payment north of SGD 3,200. That is manageable for dual-income households in the 80th percentile of earners, but it leaves very little slack.
The flats are not overpriced relative to replacement cost and income growth over the past decade. The issue is that income growth has been flatter than price growth since 2022, and the interest rate environment has not reversed meaningfully.
What I would watch
Two things over Q2 and Q3 2026.
First, whether the MAS October decision signals any rate relief. Even a 25 basis point move changes the monthly payment calculation meaningfully on a 600k to 800k loan.
Second, whether the BTO completions expected in H2 2026 absorb the buyers who are currently sitting on the fence. There are a non-trivial number of households renting while waiting for their BTO unit, who will become sellers as they move into the new flat. That secondary supply matters for the OCR resale market specifically.
I am not calling a correction. The fundamentals on the supply side are not loose enough for that. But the volume data is telling me that the market needs either price to come down or income growth to catch up before the next leg of transactions lifts off.
Nothing here is financial advice. This is how I read the data for my own investment decisions. Do your own analysis or consult a licensed professional.